The December Gold Future (GCZ0) 08-14-10

The gold future had a good up day on Friday and closed the week at 1217.40.   Price has found support just above the first price objective for the retracement down which was 1141.  Price had previously hit the longer cycle entry price for the up move at 1183.90 and that move has a price objective at 1320.  The short cycle move higher was restarted with Friday’s move above the short cycle entry price at 1212.80.  The first price objective for that move is 1269.  In order to restart a retracement lower price would have to go through 1185.  There is currently upside pressure being applied to price on the daily chart. 

December Gold Futures (GCZ0)

There seems to be a great deal of interest in gold right now and I don’t blame anyone for that.  With the government going to continue to print money to buy their own bonds and monetize the debt and adding to their contaminated derivative purchases, gold is looking better all the time.

Gold closed at 1206 up 8 dollars.   Price hasn’t reached the entry price for the longer cycle move up at 1214.70 and when it does it should reach the first price objective for that cycle at 1269.90.  Price found support at the second price objective for the move down at 1160 and now there appears to be some resistance at the short cycle price objective at 1208.60.   There is currently downside pressure being applied to price and to restart a move down price would have to go through 1185 and then the first price objective would be 1157. 

The December Gold Future (GCZ0) 07-29-10

The future is trading now at 1169.50.   There is still downside pressure being applied to price.  The indicator is in the over extended area of the chart.  Price has found temporary support at the first price objective for the retracement down at 1154.   Price has gone through the entry price for the move up at 1184 and then started to retrace the up move.   The first price objective for the move higher remains at 1320.   To restart the move higher price would have to go through the short cycle entry price of  1214 and then the first price objective for the move would be 1271.  ( This move is not shown on the chart)

The August Gold Futures Contract (GCQ0)

The futures contract is trading right now at 1193.50 with a large move down on Friday.   There is still downside pressure being applied to price on the daily chart.  At this time price seems to be in a trading range between 1181, PO2 for the move down, and 1262, PO2 for the move up.  For price to move higher it would have to go through 1221 and then the first price objective would be 1256.  The target price for the move down remains at  1153.   At this time everything seems negative for gold, but some world event could change that in minutes.  Some of the volatility came out for a while and now it appears to be back. 

August Gold Futures (GCQ0) 07-05-10

Gold futures closed up on a disappointing day at 1208.  Price stopped its upward movement at the second price objective of 1262.30 and started down after testing that high and failing.  Gold has been the bright spot in the market for several months now as well as over the past couple of years.  How much of this sell off is due to selling created by margin calls is a mystery to me.  Some of it has to have taken place.  From everything that you read the banks and governments are still buyers of gold.  With the world flooded with fiat currencies gold would be the one haven for buying power in the future.   There was divergence at the high before this drop took place so there was some warning that a drop could occur.  Right now there is still downside pressure on price on the daily chart.  Price has gone through the first price objective for the move down and is heading towards the second price objective at 1180.  For price to start a retracement higher it would have to go through 1220 and then the first price objective for the move higher would be 1244.  With the current volatility in gold that could be easily achieved.  Right now it doesn’t appear to be going to happen.  The gold bugs that I have talked to are looking for another buying opportunity.  There are guesstimates of 1350, 2000 all the way up to 8000 for targets on gold.   My current upside target is 1294 and the retracement target for the move down is at 1153.  So far the gold stocks have lead the price movement in the future.  So check AU or NEM to see what they are doing.  There could be an early warning there.

April Gold Future (GCJ0)

Gold is currently trading at 1104.40.  There is now down side pressure being applied to gold and it has been unable to reach its first price objective at 1145.50.  Gold found support at the first price objective for the move down and tried to rally.  It has broken above the down channel and then closed below the upper line today.  Price has also hit the entry price for a very short cycle down.   The first price objective for this move should be 1088.   Price found support at 1050 on the long-term chart and that chart now has downside pressure being applied to it.   The next support level on the long-term chart would be 958.  Could this weakness in gold be the precursor for a continued rally in the U.S. Dollar?  If that is the case than The Euro could be in for more problems.

 

April Gold future (GCJ0)

The past couple of days have been good for gold.  There has been about a $50 rally.  Price found support at the first price objective for the move down, but has not gone through the entry price for a move higher.  At this time gold is moving opposite to the dollar and I don’t believe that the dollar rally is over.   There is still upside pressure on price and the indicator is entering the over extended area of the chart.  If long, keep your stops tight.

Gold Future (GCJ0)

The future continues its move lower.  At this time it is being supported by the first price objective for the move down at 1082.  The next price objective for this move would be 1044.  For price to restart a move higher it would have to go through 1124 and then the first price objective would be 1174.  At this time there is downside pressure being applied to price.  The indicator is in the over extended area of the chart and trying to turn up.  At this time Gold seems to be tied to the rise and fall of the US Dollar.  If the dollar continues its rise I would expect the price of gold to try and reach the second price objective for the retracement down.  The entry price for the move higher is based upon the current low of 1074. 

The Gold Dollar Overlay (GCG0/DXH0) 01-27-10

I have received several emails asking about gold.  My reply was if you want to know about gold right now follow the dollar Index.  At this time it is easier to track and right now they seem to line up pretty good.  The horizontal lines are the price objectives for the gold chart.  As long as the dollar stays strong, gold will have a problem rallying.  Of course one really wants to know if the dollar moves gold or gold moves the dollar?  It is kind of the tail wagging the dog if you believe the gold scenario.  

February Gold Future (GCG0)

The February Future closed up $8.30 at $1098.  As gold is a measure of buying power and an indication of inflationary pressure, it is important to follow.  One no longer has to own physical gold to participate in golds rise or fall.  One now has several ETFs like GDX and GDXJ for gold stocks as well as an ETF tied to the physical price of gold, GLD.  Friday the future came down and tested the December low and rallied slightly today.  After trying to reach the first price objective for a move higher and failing price fell and found temporary support around the first price objective for the retracement down.  Pressure is still down on this chart, but it is in the over extended area and the indicator is trying to turn up.  The next price objective for the move down on this chart is 1036 with a retracement target price of 973 for this move down.  I would look for support at 1012 if price breaks below this level.  If a move higher starts there should be some heavy resistance in the 1114 to 1115 area.