China-XINHUA 25 ETF (FXI)

The IMF has put forth some interesting numbers.  They have more economists working for them than Obama and friends.  The IMF estimates that GDP growth in China and India will be about 10% for 2010 and 2011.  The estimate for the US is 2.7% in 2010 and 2.4% in 2011 and for Europe the guesstimate is 1/7% for 2010 and 1.4% for 2011.  I assume that my data source is correct.  At any rate Asia is supposed to out perform the developed countries by a goodly amount.  Right or Wrong it is worth a look.  The FXI is the ETF for the XINHUA 25.  The Chinese big board.  There are ETFs for many other countries and you can look at those to see what is happening around the world.  The main problem with this ETF is that a lot of the major moves take place while the western world is asleep. 

The FXI closed Friday at 38.36 down on the day.  The index has been falling since mid November of 2009.  Price has gone through the short-term cycle target for the retracement down and is now approaching the longer term cycle price objective at 36.26.  For price to restart its move up price would have to go through the entry price at 40.39 and then the first price objective would be 43.  There is currently up side pressure being applied to price on this chart and the indicator is in the over extended are for the down move. On a lower time frame if price can go through 38.55 it could reach 39.55 a target for that move higher.  That target price still would not trigger the entry price for the longer term cycle move higher.