The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 09-14-10

It is time for an update on the Spyder.  Price is at the second price objective for the move up and should run into some resistance in this area.  It was an up and down day today with the SPY closing at 112.65 down 0.08.  The target for this short cycle move up is 116.41.  Right now Max Pain for the SPY is at 110 and I will have to look tomorrow morning to see if there has been a major change in the open interest.  This hasn’t worked really well the past couple of expirations, but one never can tell when that will change.  The market was in rally mode all day after the open and then it took a nose dive in the last 15 minutes of trading and in the after hour trading as well.  For price to start a move lower it will have to go through 111.05 and then the first price objective will be 108.79.   The lower time frames have downside pressure being applied to price at the time and the daily chart has crossed over in an over extended area of the chart.  The problem is that it has done this before and then continued higher.  We shall see how the news tomorrow affects price action. 

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 009-12-10

Friday’s up move clicked the pressure indicator from down to up.  The problem is that is still divergence at the top and with all the upside pressure price hs not been able to close above the 200 day moving average or take out the key previous high.  With a close of 111.48 there seems to be a lose of momentum for the up move .  For Price to start a move down it would have to go through 109.44 and then the first price objective would be 107.20.  The next price objective for the move higher would be 113.35.  The indicators on the lower time frames are all over extended. 

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 09-04-10

September has started off with a bang.  All the indexes were up strongly this week.  Now the question is can they continue with this upside momentum.  The SPY closed at 110.91, just above the first price objective of  110.38.  The second price objective for this short cycle move is 113.34.  There is still upside pressure being applied to price on this chart.  The big problem is that the indicator is in a very over extended area of the chart as are the two main  lower time frame charts.  If pressure turns down on all three at the same time there could be a violent movement to the downside.  For price to restart a move down it would have to go through 108.81 and then the first price objective for the move down would be 106.60.  This market seems to jump one way or the other based upon really irrelevant news.  

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 08-31-10

This was an interesting day for the last day of the month.  After this morning’s announcements, which were better that expected, The Dow Jones Average (INDU) rallied to plus 60 and then the rest of the day was spent hammering it to minus 30 and it finally closed up 4.99 at 10,014.72.  Once again the 10,000 level held.  The Spyder had a range of  1.50 points and ended the day down 0.001, basically even at 105.39.  Then after the close the SPY took off like a scalded cat and ran to 105.84.   There is still upside pressure being applied to the Daily chart.  The 104 level held once again as the bears tried to drive price through that level.  107.27 remains the entry price for the next move higher with 110 as the first price objective.  101 remains the target for this move down. 

Comparison between the US Dollar, The Euro and the SPY 08-28-10

The question that I wanted a partial answer to was whether there was any correlation between the Dollar, the Euro and the Markets.  I am using the SPY as a market indicator.  It appears from the attached charts that the SPY has been moving in step with the Euro and opposite to the US Dollar.  If that relationship remains then one should be able to get an indication as to where the US markets should go.   I believe that the charts are self-explanatory.  There is an analysis of the Euro, the US Dollar and the SPY following this.

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 08-28-10

This was an extraordinary Friday.  The Dow opened up plus 70+ points and then immediately went to down 30+ points within the first half hour of trading.  Then there was a steady rise the rest of the day until the Dow closed up over 160 points.  The SPY had a similar experience.  The SPY closed Friday at 106.86, just below the high of the day.  There is upside pressure being applied to the daily chart at this time.  The chart has remained the same for the past several days.  104 continues to act as support.  The entry price for the next move higher is still 107.31 with 110 as the first price objective.  There is one hook in this picture.  The fact that the lower time frames are showing very over extended readings.  I would expect some sort of profit taking on Monday, if not at the opening then a little later in the day.  Unless you are trading out of hedged positions it is very difficult to trade these very volatile markets.  If you are long, I would hedge using either puts or the negative ETF SDS.  Once the next move is clear you can remove the hedge.   In order to restart a move down price would have to go through 104.62 and then the first price objective would be 102.44. 

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 08-25-10

The SPY came down to the second price objective for the retracement down at 104 and found support there.  The SPY closed the day at 105.94 up 0.41 on the day.  A major accomplishment considering the day’s news.  The pressure indicator has turned up and is trying to apply upside pressure upon price.  As with the INDU price might have found support in this area.  For price to restart a move higher it would have to go through 107.31 and then the first price objective for the move would be 110.35.   The interesting thing about this move down is that it has not voided the up move with a price objective at 118.  If the bulls grab control again that price would not be out of the question.  I am still bearish about the markets, but I refuse to stand in front of a moving train or the Fed.  As long as they keep printing money and twisting arms the bears will have their hands full.   Me included.

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

It was not a good week for the SPY as it hit a new low, but the 107 price objective for the move down seemed to hold for a second time.  There is still downside pressure being applied to price on the daily chart.  The SPY closed the week at 107.54 down .35 on the day.  For an Expiration Friday it was a rather quite one after the first hour.  So much for the 110 max pain level which held price on Wednesday.   At a quick glance it appears that about one days volume in the SPY puts will be exercised over the week-end.  It should be an interesting Monday.  With all the downside pressure being applied to price there has been relatively little downside action in price.   So far this month price has retraced about 1/2 of the July move up.  What happens when this pressure is relieved?  There is usually a rally into Labor Day and whether it happens this year is yet to be seen.  There is a Fib time cycle that ends on 9/2 which should be a low.  I wonder if this might not be an inversion high.  The only reason I think this is that with all the bad news price hasn’t really dropped as I thought it would.  One of the reasons one trades the charts and not what one thinks.   104 remains the second price objective for the move down.  In order for an up move to restart price would have to go through 109.67 and then the first price objective would be 112. 

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 08-18-10

Max Pain for the SPY has been 110 for the past several days.  Nothing changed as of this morning.  Today the spy spent the day oscillating on either side of that number.  The SPY closed the day at 109.78 up 0.19 and had a high of  110.38.  There remains upside pressure on price at this time and we shall check tomorrow to see what the updated open interest is for the SPY options.  All the numbers remain the same as those published over the week-end.   Price has gone through the short cycle entry price for the move higher at 110.20 which has a price objective of 113.20.  Price objective 2 for the longer cycle at 112.45 has acted as resistance before and should act as resistance to the up move again.   For price to restart the move down it would have to go through 108.90 and then the first price objective would be just above the 107 price objective for the longer cycle down noted on the chart. 

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 08-14-10

Like the Dow the SPY did not have a good week.  The SPY closed the week at 108.31.  There remains downside pressure upon price on the daily chart.  Like the Dow it is in an over extended area of the chart.  Price seems to have found temporary support at the first price objective for the move down at 107.   In order to restart the move higher price would have to go through 110.64 and then PO1 would be at 113.63.  There was resistance at the second price objective for the short cycle move up at 112 and the target for that move at 114 is still in play.  The longer cycle with its first price objective at 118.7 is still in play also.  Neither of these up moves has been voided.    Unlike the Dow, price has not been able to take out the previous high at 113.20 which doesn’t really look good at this time.   Labor day is September 6 and the markets usually rally into holidays.  Now the question is will the rally start now and last until then or will there be a one day rally on September 2 or 3?  I don’t have a crystal ball so I don’t have an answer to that question.